The Odds of Money in The Bank
by, 07-13-2011 at 05:05 PM (4384 Views)
Hey guys, for the past week I have been reading about who everyone thinks will win at MITB, and that's fair enough. However, for my latest blog I have tried to set the odds for each match. I hope I get close to what you think the odds should be!
My odds are in the brackets. If you do not understand how the system works, if the odds are 3/1 and you placed a $1 bet, you would win back £3 plus your original dollar. However, if the odds are 1/3, that superstar is heavily favoured, and that you would have to bet £3 in order to win £1. If the odds are evens, it means that that the superstar has just as much chance of winning that losing (like a 50/50 chance). To put it as simple as I can, if the second number in the odds (so the 1 in 2/1) is lower than the first, it has less than a 50/50 chance, whilst if the first number is lower, that superstar is favourite.
For the superstars in the MITB Ladder Match, no superstar will be heavily favoured due to the variables that could occur in the match.
Phew hope you understood that! Let's do this
1. Randy Orton (1/3 favourite) vs Christian (2/1)
Orton has been on a roll since being drafted, and it seems as though the management want him to carry the brand for a while. This is why he is a huge favourite. As for Christian, I believe he has more of a shot than he did at the last PPV as he has become a fully blown heel now. Add this to the stipulations in this match, and this means that Christian isn't that much of an outsider than people make out.
2. Rey Mysterio (8/1) vs. Alberto Del Rio (4/1 favourite) vs. Kofi Kingston (16/1) vs. Alex Riley (5/1) vs. R-Truth (5/1) vs. The Miz (6/1) vs. Evan Bourne (25/1) vs. Jack Swagger (12/1)
Two reasons for ADR being favourite here; This week's Raw performance, as well as his highly- touted feud with Cena in the next few months. Truth is up there too, due to the majority of MITB winners being heels (I think anyway). His downfall maybe this 'conspiracy' angle he has. We shall see.
I could easily see Riley snatching the briefcase with his current form also, but I suspect that he and Miz will have some kind of hardcore match as Summerslam (Street Fight anyone?). Rey always has a shot, and my dark horse is Jack Swagger. Bourne is only in there for an Airbourne from the ladder, and Kingston too is in there for his athleticism.
3. Kelly Kelly (1/6 BIGGG favourite) vs Brie Bella (10/1)
Kelly x2 is unquestionably the face of the divas division right now, and she's only just captured the title. She has owned the Bellas recently, and I forsee a long title reign. End of.
4. Big Show (evens) vs Mark Henry (evens)
Based on the past few weeks, Henry has undoubtedly got the upper hand over Show. This being said though, it only takes one shot for the Big Show to beat Mark Henry, and WWE could be tempted to make the fans happy halfway through the show with him winning. I know a lot of you would put Henry as favourite, but I believe this is such a close one to call.
5. Kane (10/1) vs. Sin Cara (10/1) vs. Daniel Bryan (9/1) vs. Wade Barrett (6/1 join favourite) vs. Cody Rhodes (6/1 join favourite) vs. Justin Gabriel (15/1) vs. Heath Slater (18/1) vs. Sheamus (7/1)
The Smackdown MITB match is the tougher of the two to call. Again, I think a lot of you would disagree with my odds, but let me explain my reasoning. Cody Rhodes has tremendous upside, and is become a big time player. His past year has been good, and he has experience in these matches, with possible assistance from his friend, Ted DiBiase. As for Barrett, although losing the IC Title recently, his exodus of sorts from the Corre has made him more credible and focused. He doesn't have the B-type superstars to look after and this will be to his advantage. However, after last week's SD, he might be nailed into another feud coming up (no spoilers!)
Sheamus is an interesting case. He has teased being involved in the title picture. However, do the WWE execs believe he needs this win. I doubt it. As for the rest, Kane is lower than what I was going to put him as due to his last MITB match (where he won). Daniel Bryan as a good shot also, and I don't know what else he is going to do after this. Sin Cara has lost steam recently,and I still don't understand why Slater and Gabriel are in this match. Although for Gabriel, see my comments about Bourne.
6. John Cena (1/2) vs CM Punk (2/1)
Cena has to be favourite due to the departure of Punk. Plus, THIS IS SUPERCENA HERE! Unless Punk has signed a contract already, which I highly doubt, he doesn't have as much chance as people make out. Yes he might win only for a MITB winner to take it from him, but it's all in the air. Although anything is possible in this match (Rock maybe, Mcmahon, a Chicago riot), I still stand by Cena being champ by the end of this match. Plus Punk hasn't had a good record at PPV's (apart from very recently) this year.
Other fun odds
US Title defended: 7/1
Tag Team Titles defended: 9/1
McMahon appearance: 5/1
Rock appearance: 20/1
Zach Ryder appearance: 22/1
Booker T saying, "TELL ME I DID NOT JUST SEE THAT": Guaranteed!
How do you rate my bookmaking abilities? Don't go to hard on me though as I'm not a professional by any stretch!
Anyway, thanks for reading folks!